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Gut Instincts In Crisis Decision Making
I recently reviewed a posting on a prominent web forum that gave the author’s best take on the role of “feelings” in making decisions – especially during a crisis or urgency. I agreed and did not agree with the posting as it relates to Crisis Management and Crisis Decisions. Yes, feelings or more accurately described as “intuition” or “Gut Instincts” are part of crisis decisions – the posting dismissed this as not always an accurate method of making a decision. Yes, but…I thought – and here I go. I just have to say something here. I know of many stories and recounts of how a person “sensed” something and made a decision on that intuition which may or may not have been consistent with the facts at hand nor the advice of others. Why? Here’s my 2 cents on this subject:
- People instinctively know more than they consciously know that they know. Our minds which are based on our brain function, are so much more complex and contain so much more than we are aware. We know more than we know or of which we are aware. That knowledge comes from our experiences and our intuitive interpretation of our circumstances and we get a “sense” of what we should do. Some people call this the gut instinct. Many times this is developed from training. Others say it is knowing the RIGHT THING TO DO which is also based on our conscience which is our moral compass as well as our personal values.
- There is more to a situation than just “facts”. In fact, facts are only facts as long as the conditions remain constant. Facts are different depending on who tells them, who sees them, who knows them and may or may not contain all the truth. Because of our analytical abilities, we are, based on our experience and previous knowledge input, able to assemble and consider “facts”. Some of us do this “instinctively” without a conscious purpose that we are doing this. It is what gives us a sense of awareness and may result in hesitation to take a specific path, spend financial or human capital, or move forward on a recommended decision. Again, this is often called a “sense” which is our unconscious intellect that doesn’t have an external source. We are able to discern “facts” and make a decision based on our senses or “hunches”.
- There is more to communication than the electronic information put before us. We have become entrenched in electronic communication and filtered, digested, slanted and cultured reports and communication. Which means that we “read between the lines” and, based on our mind set, we “interpret” information and communication. So many times I hear leadership team members say to each other, “I was just thinking the same thing”; or “Yes, I just thought of that, too.” This is enhanced, in my experience, when you add video to audio – as in teleconferencing. You are far more able to “see” what the other team members are thinking – I know that sounds weird, but non-verbal (visual) communication is often estimated at 80% of communication – and without consciously acknowledging that, we act on or make decisions on more than just verbal or written communication. Some would call that instincts and it may well be, but it has an external origination that is processed internally. We don’t just receive “Facts”, we interpret them and understand them in context. This process can be called “gut instinct” and it can also be a “group experience” for a leadership team.
- There is a spiritual factor to people who have a faith oriented mindset in which they are sensitive to a response (answer) to their prayer and/or sudden creative thoughts about the situation. Some people have dreams and others experience daydreams or visions and these people trust this form of “instinct” as divine inspiration and guidance. In one case with a faith-based international relief and response organization, I was training the leadership team in crisis management and asked, “ So, based on this situation (we were conducting a table top exercise), what is the first step of the Crisis Management Team?” I, of course, was teaching process and I was expecting a response that started out with Number 1 on our checklist/team agenda. What I got back was a unanimous response that , “We pray.” I will report that this team was more comfortable with each other, employed a more cohesive and mutually respectful process with each other, and more quickly arrived at a decision on the situation and when they arrived at a decision, they all agreed that it was the right thing to do. I was very impressed with their maturity and faith or trust in divine guidance and their trust of each other. I don’t teach this in my trainings, but I would encourage anyone in a faith-based organization to rely on this.
- The final comment I have is that there is more to every individual’s capability than they realize, and many times, this capability becomes manifest during a crisis situation. This is what most people think of as leadership and maybe that is what this is. Most people not only do the right thing, they do it better than their previous best and most of us don’t’ either know that we can or could say with confidence that we could. The best way to do the best we can and make the best decision we can when we don’t have enough time, information or resources, is to prepare to do so. That is why we have crisis management plans and do the pre-training to prepare ourselves. Even with that, which pushes up to a higher level of capability, we can go upward and beyond depending on the situation. There are so many testimonies of people who not only evacuated dangerous situations (like the World Trade Center), but also helped others and made immediate important life-saving decisions at the time. This is in you – in all of us. Maybe it is gut instinct, but I think it is also the best of you coming out when it is needed.
Crisis Leadership is doing the right thing at the right time and being your best during the worst. In order to do that, you need to be prepared. Have a plan and know what to do – that’s the best place to start off during a crisis.
Jan Decker, Crisis Management Consulting jan.decker@comcast.net 253·261·2704
Copyright 2012 – All Rights Reserved
CPG 101 Emergency Operations Plan Development – The Basic Plan
There are several thoughts and approaches to the Basic Plan section of an Emergency Operations Plan. Many very practical planners provide an overview with general facts and an overview hazard section that is sometimes subtitled, “The Situation”. The CPG 101 loads up the BASIC PLAN section with not only situation facts, but also general information on Administration, Communication, Coordination, Capability and Direction and Control.
Here are some of the areas of my approach. Yes to all of the above. And, whatever is needed to support the emergency response and recovery plans and protocols of the associated annexes and contingencies put it in the BASIC PLAN.
When preparing a Basic Plan section, one of my goals is to articulate through this section the facts and data of the geo-political and demographical situation, a listing of the locations and features of the jurisdiction, identification and basic definition or descriptions of the hazards, threats and potential incidents, general response capabilities and a summary of the overall emergency operations management as outlined in the CPG 101. The information presented in the Basic Plan section becomes the basic information in the management and functional response annexes, as well as, the individual hazard or incident guides (also annexes).
It takes a bit of time, effort and research to write up a Basic Plan. For a county, for example, it includes all the sub-jurisdictions, other local government entities and other types of entities, including federal, state and tribal reserves and lands that are situated within the county’s borders. It also includes a good description and listing of the infrastructures (such as transportation, rail, air, communication, utilities, etc.) and the major operations and sites such as large employers, industrial complexes, stadiums and areas of assembly. I always include lakes, rivers, reservoirs, wetlands, preserves, and major features such as ranges, mountains, deserts and agriculture.
The listing of municipalities, governments, districts and especially the entities involved in emergency operations is important. These listed agencies and entities are found as primary and support agencies and entities in the annexes and are the “Plan Holders” and sometimes signature agencies to the sections of the Emergency Operations Plan in which they are the primary or lead agency.
The Response Capability section can be approached a number of ways. I have seen this section iterated as a Resource Listing with totals of emergency responders, equipment, apparatus, and agencies. I have a different approach and I have to thank my good colleague, Cindy Mullaney, at the Flathead County Office of Emergency Services (Montana) for helping me think this through. She suggested and I agreed that this was a good approach that we think of this in terms of incident TYPING. Following through on her comment, I worked with my last three clients on typing an incident using the TYPE V-I categories. With this approach, the response capability for the jurisdiction for each hazard or incident response can be identified and listed to respond to and recovery from a certain type of incident. You could also correlate this to “Levels of Emergencies”. This was very useful in preparing the hazard/incident response guides.
The hazard identification planning process is one of the most interesting processes of the planning effort. I utilize a Composite Risk Index approach and work closely with the planning oversight group to do a CRI assessment in 2 modes. The first is to weigh the probability and rank according to Probability X Impacts which presents a list of ranked hazards on probability. This is usually supported by historical data. The second is to calculate the sum (no weight or multiplication) of the probability and impacts, all having the same weight or emphasis. The result is a ranking on impacts. It is a different list. Both are valuable as a first level hazard analysis. For each hazard (which I generally list as an alphabetical list), we also spend the time to prepare a succinct definition that is appropriate for that jurisdiction. This definition carries through the plan. This planning session is one of the most enjoyable and interesting in the process and shouldn’t, in my view, be shortcut. Some planners will have this section separated as its own annex which is also a good idea if it will be augmented by maps, graphics, photos and other information.
I also include a general list of planning assumptions for the jurisdiction. This is also a great discussion for the planning oversight group and is a major step in setting up the processes for response and coordination in the annexes.
I include sections on authority, chain of delegation, basic concepts of levels of authority, levels of emergency, levels of response and recovery, phases of emergency management, emergency declarations, states of emergency and other major concepts of an emergency response for the jurisdiction. If there are acronyms and other terms that are unique to the emergency plan, I also include a glossary.
One of the last sections is the requirements in the CPG 101 to address Administration, Finance, Direction & Control, Communication and other major response and recovery functions. I have my own approach to this which is divided by phase and authority. It is important to be able to summarize these operational processes as they are also key components of the annexes.
And, I include a training and exercise section, if this is NOT an annex, which I think it should be. This part would need to be updated annually as the exercise and training program is updated.
There are other additions to the Basic Plan and it can be as comprehensive as you want. One of my goals is that the Emergency Managers do not have to find another source of basic data during an emergency for their reports, public information releases, and operational information. They can refer to the Basic Plan and find what they need, and in most cases, lift out the text for their forms and documentation. Additionally, by reading the Basic Plan, all leaders in the jurisdiction will be on the SAME PAGE AND CONCEPT during an emergency response. Further, it is an education and training tool and by reading it, the reader understands the SITUATION for the jurisdiction and is articulate in the Basic Concepts.
Wanna talk about the Basic Plan – give me a shout – Jan Decker 253 261 2704, jan.decker@comcast.net
CPG 101 – That is the subject of the next few blogs.
There are a few of us who oddly came of age with an interest – and for me it is a passionate endeavor – in developing, training in, and using what are now known as Emergency Operations Plans (EOP). While emergency planning per se is now a more or less common task, when most of us who were here before the CPG 101 – when we were coming up the ranks, the drudge job was writing the emergency operations plan and I’m one of the few who actually wanted the job. In fact, I helped other agencies and private entities and finally became a consultant in it just because I loved it. Thank the GOOD LORD for the proliferation of computers and MS WORD, which has made the production of the pages into a planner-friendly process. And, no matter what you think of the various governments and models and all the bazillion guidelines and requirements, you gotta be happy that there is the CPG 101 (Comprehensive Planning Guide 101, a FEMA guideline, available at: http://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/divisions/npd/CPG_101_V2.pdf .
It is a smart, strategic and comprehensive approach. Where I come in with these blogs, is hopefully, to explain it in such a way that it makes sense and if you are an emergency planner, or want to hire one, you will have a good feeling about this planning process.
To start off, I believe it would be good to remember where we came from. Emergency Operations Plans, in the good ol’ days came from the CIVIL DEFENSE era, when we were focused on, funded by, and supposed to be addressing ATTACK and THREAT contingencies. Most of our DISASTER COUNCILS and our local, state and federal government authorities were based on (many of them still are) an attack from a foreign entity. We were all about population protection from nuclear bombs, radioactive particles, explosions, air attacks and, air borne threats of mustard gas and other attack agents. Our plans were focused on the organization and assignment of our government resources on such contingencies. We had the CIVIL DEFENSE radio and then television emergency broadcast system, assigned shelters, and cadres of civilian volunteers who were registered and willing and able to organize their communities into protection, relocation, and survival. Oh yeah, we had cool yellow construction helmets and vests with CIVIL DEFENSE all over them. You could pick us out in the crowd!
With the givens of such potential situations, the Plans were organized around government emergency authority and department or agency based assignments. Many of the plans were very straightforward and simple and supplemented by separate plans based contingencies, such as radiology monitoring or field hospitals. Some of these plans had different authorities and were quite unique – each one having its own authority, set of leaders and levels of activation or trigger points. We didn’t have a STANDARD set of terms or functions and these plans varied by state, city, county and application. As a relative youngster in the emergency management business, I was very impressed with how military sounding these plans were. And almost every plan had pages and pages of contingency instructions with department assignments and the identification of resources, such as, the American Red Cross, the local volunteers and places or equipment. Pretty basic. And today’s planning is pretty much based on the same approach.
What is different is now instead of a whole bunch of separate plans, we have a comprehensive approach with one basic plan, identified potential hazards, threats, situations and incidents, and a single system of authority, management, coordination and control. All of it is INTEGRATED, which means that there are master or primary concepts and each annex (contingency or function) works off of the main concepts (the Basic Plan). We also have multiple concurrent leadership, and try as we do to get it all under 1 INCIDENT COMMANDER; we have to work with various laws, programs, and authorities.
So, after the 80’s, we left the simple plan and bunches of other plans, and started to consolidate into one master plan and tried to focus on FUNCTIONS instead of DEPARTMENTS. Hence, the MULTI-FUNCTIONAL PLAN, which was very comprehensive and its signature was the old P and S chart – where the functions were listed across the top and the departments down the side and the P’s were the primary (in charge of) and the S’s were support.
Into this design comes the Incident Command System (ICS) which provided an excellent model of functional based response organization that was loosely integrated into the plans. This was a monkey wrench into the department based plans and works fabulously for fire type incidents, but was difficult for other types of responses.
And, with the 80’s came FEMA and emphasis shifted from war planning to natural and technological disasters and you all know the story of how we got to 9/11.
And that’s the thumbnail of plans and their history – I’m sure most communities that have been around for the past forty years could expound on this with very interesting anecdotes.
So, with the CPG 101 – all of the above has come together into a comprehensive guide and I love it. The most recent guidelines bring back the departments and allow all annexes (which are those separate plans) to co-exist as management annexes, specific functional annexes, hazard/incident specific annexes and now department annexes. Hurray for the CPG 101. We can have it all and have it all organized into one master plan again.
If you are still saying, ok, so how do I get started? Hang in there. We’ll start on that next blog.
Questions – give me ring or a ping– Jan Decker 253 261 2704. jan.decker@comcast.net
The Profile of a Crisis Management Leader – A BALANCE of Plans, Processes, and Posture
Emergency Managers love to quote Snoopy who said, “Five minutes before the party is not the time to learn to dance.” They, of course, are referring to the Crisis Manager or Leader – who should be well prepared for the leadership moment as well as the sustained management of continued response, containment, control, and eventual recovery to normal operations.
Well – Snoopy is right. No matter how good you are, you can’t be briefed five minutes before the big one on what to do and how to do it – and expect to succeed.
A Crisis Management Leader is a balance of three primary components:
- Plans – which are decisions made in advance
- Processes – which are systems and organized resources
- Posture – which is how one looks, acts and communicates
If I were to be pressed to give a percentage score – I would say it is the following:
- 35% Plans – which are the solid foundation for any crisis management program – plans are the intelligent and progressive development and roll-out of anticipatory decisions and actions to confront, mediate, mitigate and neutralize the crisis situation until it is no longer an emergency.
- 35% Processes – which are the implementation of plans into systems and resources. This is essential to being able to operate and take action – providing real time information exchange, the dissemination of directions, information and the tracking and management of operations.
- 30% Posture – posture is composure, readiness, confidence, and the appearance of full understanding and capability that the leader knows what to do – this may not be the solution or answer to the problem, but it is the pathway to determine the answer and the authoritative direction to get to that end. Posture is the ability to communicate succinctly, with authority to influence and direct the entire organization toward the objectives and end goal of containing the hazard or threat and restoring the situation to normal. Posture is best exhibited in communication – verbal, non-verbal and written (digital) to all entities, internal and external.
Notwithstanding Snoopy’s wisdom, if a Crisis Management Leader has a good written plan and reliable tested processes in place, they can, in 5 minutes, construct their posture of leadership when facing a sudden crisis situation. It isn’t learning how to dance; it is more of knowing that you have to now dance, deciding which dance to dance, what steps to take, and being light on the feet, always ready for a change in the music.
My tag line, should I use one, would be my Grandma’s saying to me as I was walking out the door to life, “Jan, straighten up your posture, stand tall and look good.”
Same to you, Crisis Management Leader – lead with posture!
Jan Decker
Crisis Management Consulting
253 261 2704
Copyright© Jan Decker 2012
Rapid Strategic Leadership Training
Rapid Strategic Leadership
Rapid
Real Time; without delay, fast acting
Strategic
Advancing toward a goal or objective; decision alignment toward the end goal
Leadership
Directing and influencing an agenda; Power oriented role or position
When I work with an executive management team to develop skills, confidence and posturing in crisis management, we always start with a workshop on understanding the power base of the organization’s leadership. With public and government entities, the power base is primarily in the senior executive or head of the department or agency. It is less on personal style and skill and more on position. For a private company and many not-for-profit organizations, leadership can emerge from within the organization and the actual crisis manager often is not the highest ranking position.
Using the power base of the organization and managing from that base is a core leadership skill of Rapid Strategic Leadership©. To be a strong and effective leader in crisis management, the Crisis Manager influences, engages, and enlists the willing cooperation of the organization and the implementation of the crisis action plan. Strategic thinking is clear thinking and understanding of the situation, the impacts, the anticipated consequences and the immediate, short term, long term and recovery solution. Rapid means immediate, without delay and REAL TIME.
The basic skills of a good and effective Crisis Manager are developed through training and practice once the Crisis Management Plan and the structure and systems are all in place for urgent activation. At that point, the training is personal and the crisis manager must want to develop and leverage his or her personal style, vision, ability to think and reason quickly, and develop the personal capability to lead during a crisis.
We believe that this type of leadership can be developed for anyone who finds themselves in the position of Crisis Manager, either by an extension of their daily job or through the opportunity of being on the Crisis Management Team. We are developing a workshop for interested participants who want to gain these skills.
Let us know if you are interested in this workshop. We currently work one-on-one with individuals, but are willing to tailor this to a team, if requested.
Rapid Strategic Leadership© is a training program offered by Jan Decker, Crisis Management Consulting. Contact us at 253 261 2704 or jan.decker@comcast.net about this training.
Copyright Jan Decker 2012
Preparedness for the Small Business
From time to time, I’m asked to talk to groups of business folks with small operations, family owned businesses, home-based operations, and owener operated enterprises. Here is the substance of an hour’s talk:
Think About It:
- There IS A 9 OUT OF 10 chance that your business
will go out of business for good if you are not prepared for a major disaster. - If you are injured or become unable to work as a
result of a disaster, the chances are even higher that your doors will close. - If you are unable to conduct business after 2
weeks of being closed, you probably won’t reopen. - Most businesses that depend upon daily cash flow
have a permanent loss of revenue when the business is closed. - Most operator/owner run businesses will have
permanent loss from any revenue or loss not covered by insurance and for the
length of time it takes for the insurance to pay off. - Most owner/operators have chosen not to pay for
L&I, unemployment and other public assistance. - Power and other utility services can be
interrupted for up to 2 weeks. - Banks will not honor lines of credit and cash
loans without proof of payment
now. - Customers are fickle – many of them take their
business to other providers and not come back. - The emotional and operational cost of a
lost dollar is 3 times – it takes $3 to overcome the cost of losing $1
GET READY:
- If you have to shut down for 3 days – and you
know it – list 5 things that you will do for your business? - Working SMART for your business:
- S – STRATEGIC – STAY in business
- M – MANAGE – the MOST important things – People, Assets, Business Capability
- A – ACCOUNTS – Customers, Bank, Vendors, Payroll
- R – RESOURCES – Back ups, Extras, Credit, Funds, Alternates, Fixes
- T-TIME and TALENT - Prioritize, Authorize. Improvise, Back to Strategize
SYSTEMS THAT MUST BE IN PLACE:
- The ability to communicate with Staff, Customers and Key Stakeholders
- The capability to continue, restore and restart the provision of services or selling of products
- The ability operate business process including:banking, ordering,
etc
PLANS and HOW TO’s WHEN THINGS ARE NOT NORMAL
- How are we going to manage ongoing business
- How are we going to assess damage and impacts – to our people, our place of operation, our assets and our capabilities
- How are we going to restart operations if interrupted
- Is there a way to recovery that which has been lost?
Tips on Damage Assessment
- Have a list of everything that could be broken or lost – through a video capture, lists and photos.
- Take photos and make notations of all lost, broken, damaged, and ruined assets
- Get estimates for repair and replacement
- Work with insurance reps to prepare reports/claims -
- Know the policy provisions and meet any insurance requirements
BACK IN BIZ???
Advertise and announce to EVERYONE – customers will return!
SOME THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND:
- Have more than 1 cell phone and email
- Keep customer contact records backed and available
- Accounts receivable – you want to keep that backed up
- Accounts payable – pay people first
- Have back up signatures and power of attorney so
that someone can run your business - Have alternate suppliers and be prepared to provide temporary solutions to customers
- If you cannot provide a service, be ready to make a decision about your current jobs – either pay for a substitute or plan to recompense your customers
- Read all your insurance document NOW – make sure
you understand it
If all is lost – spend quiet time rethinking your business – sometimes you can restart and sometimes you can start over. Get legal advice, if needed.
Remember – a Crisis is ALWAYS an Opportunity
Jan Decker – 253 261 2704
Using Video to Train Yourself
Video is a wonderful media and tool for every organization to train yourselves in crisis management and crisis communication, including outreach and media interviews. When you link up with a fabulous professional who is also affordable, like Chris McKenna with www.mckennavideo.com, you are able to train yourselves and your people in several layers:
- We set up simulated interviews using our “Roving Reporter” and our Camera Man. We start with IMPROMPTU interviews which are live camera with a slightly aggressive approach from the Reporter. This type of practice is the best way to train yourself for such an encounter. You go through our 1 hour tips and echniques for impromptu interviews, learn your own media management from your own Crisis Communications Plan (if you don’t have one – you need to prepare one) and then you practice – real life on the video. We let you try it again and again until you are comfortable with your response and publish the one or two best “takes”. You get to learn, think about, practice and then see your best.
- We also set up Extemporaneous Interviews in which you KNOW in advance (maybe not much time – but enough to prepare yourself) that you will be interviewed. Again we go through the tips and techniques of talking to a report in a stand up interview about a crisis that your organization is experiencing. This, again, is OLYMPIC style practice – you train yourself to think ahead on what you will say, how you will say it and get to practice with our ROVING REPORTER. We give you the video (edited for best take) and you then see yourself on camera. There is no better way to get this experience and expertise without actually being in the interview. SEE A MISTAKE – no problem – you can critique yourself and you will immediately better AT EVERY public speaking opportunity you have.
- We set up NEWS ANCHOR broadcasts about your company and the situation and then call you – you get live, over the phone, interview practice. We video you as you talk on the phone – you see yourself, hear yourself and relive the experience.
- We set up at your own PRESS Conference and have you give your statement and then ask you questions – this is great for the TEAM as you can decide who will answer the questions and give you the experience again, of thinking through your answer BEFORE you answer.
We couldn’t do any of this without the video – it takes an excellent professional videographer and his/her professional studio to shoot the video, process the raw video, edit into BEST TAKES and enhance the audio, and then put it together into your own training production.
Thinking about doing this?? Give me a call – Jan Decker – I’ll chat with you about how we – Jan Decker with Crisis Management Consulting and Chris McKenna with McKenna Video – work as a team for your organization. We are good at what we do – affordable – and on YOUR SIDE – our services help you do what you do looking and sounding your best! Jan Decker 253 261 2704.
13 Point Crisis Management Strategy
I am often asked for a good strategy for Crisis Management –
what is a good Crisis Management Plan
Here is my standard answer:
When a Crisis happens, your strategy is to:
- Know what is happening (facts, data and situational information)
- Know what “what is happening” means (understanding)
- Know what to do about it (response plan)
- Know who does what when you do something about it (designated team)
- Know how to do what you are to do about it (process and procedures)
- Know how to manage all that is being done or should be done about it (management)
- Have sufficient resources to accomplish what is being done(supplies, authority, tools and access to unds/resources/outside services)
- Be able to communicate and see what is being done by you and others – interactive real time communication
- Be able to make decisions and send instructions and receive feedback while it is all happening – be able to manage
- Be able to delegate and control or manage without having to do everything, say everything or check on everything yourself – (a system, a team, a process and an infrastructure)
- Record, post, map, collate, analyze and document data and actions – (a system)
- Be able to show that you did what you did and when you did it and how you did it and who did what (documentation)
- Be able to review/assess/analyze what you did so that the next time you are able to do it better and that you can defend what you did to those who may critique you in the aftermath
Jan Decker – jan.decker@comcast.net